Coalition

Budget impacts over the forward estimates

The total impact of the Coalition's 214 election commitments would result in an improvement in the underlying cash, headline cash and fiscal balances over the 2025‑26 Budget forward estimates period (Table 4‑1) relative to the PEFO baseline.^[22]

The improvement in the underlying cash balance reflects a net decrease in payments driven by commitments such as Reducing the APS to a sustainable level over time through natural attrition (ECR-2025-2147), Rail projects – Increase and rephase (ECR-2025-2257) and Home Batteries Program – redirect (ECR-2025-2129). 

The improvement in the underlying cash balance is partially offset by commitments that would lower receipts such as Cost of Living Tax Offset (ECR-2025-2666), Adjust fuel excise – 25c per litre reduction (ECR-2025-2457) and Tax on unrealised capital gains – do not proceed (ECR-2025-2011), and commitments that would increase payments, such as Increase defence spending – including investing in a fourth F-35A Lightning Squadron (ECR-2025-2734), Housing Infrastructure Program (ECR-2025-2862) and Better transport and telecommunications infrastructure (ECR-2025-2328).

Over the forward estimates period, the impact of the Coalition's election commitments on the headline cash balance is an $18.3 billion improvement compared to the underlying cash balance. The difference is mainly a result of the Student HELP changes – not proceeding (ECR-2025-2230) and Help to Buy Scheme – reverse (ECR-2025-2213) which is partially offset by the Housing Infrastructure Program (ECR-2025-2862) and Modify Commonwealth Prac Payments (ECR 2025-2599). 

Table 4-1: Summary financial implications of the Coalition's election commitments ($ billion)

Source: 2025 PEFO and PBO analysis.
(a)    Fiscal balance impacts in individual years do not sum to the totals to 2028-29 and 2035-36 as the totals include a $10.7 billion impact in 2024-25 for the election commitment Student HELP changes - not proceeding (ECR-2025-2230).
Note: A positive impact indicates an increase in the budget balance or debt levels. A negative impact indicates a reduction in the budget balance or debt levels. Figures may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Of the Coalition's 214 election commitments, 140 affect only payments, 13 affect only receipts, 34 affect both payments and receipts and 27 commitments have no impact on the budget aggregates.

The PBO's estimates of the financial implications of the Coalition's platform are not materially different from those published by the Coalition prior to the election.^[23] There are some differences for individual commitments, including a $1.6 billion decrease due to an updated PBO methodology for the Entrepreneurship Accelerator tax incentive (ECR-2025-2472). However, when taken together, these differences amount to no more than 0.1% of GDP in any given year and are not considered significant.

Further detail about the combined impact of the Coalition's election commitments on expenses, revenue and other budget aggregates is available in Detailed Financial Tables – the Coalition.