Coalition

Interactions

The PBO has determined that beyond these interactions, interactions between the Coalition's election commitments result in minimal differences in estimated impacts, except for those related to migration and student visas.

Reductions in the number of migrants under the Coalition’s election commitments Permanent migration program – reduction (ECR-2025-2038) and New overseas student commencements – reduction (ECR-2025-2280) have been incorporated directly into the estimates for the following commitments:

• Newly arrived migrant waiting period – rationalise to 5 years (ECR-2025-2126)
• Student visa work hours – increase (ECR-2025-2848)
• Two tiered Student Visa application charge (ECR-2025-2852).

The tax cap

The Coalition's policy that taxation receipts not exceed 23.9% of GDP is incorporated in the calculation of the Coalition's fiscal aggregates, but not as an individual commitment.

Implementing the tax cap would require additional unspecified tax cuts of $141.3 billion from 2030-31 over the medium term to maintain tax receipts at or below the tax cap (see Figure 4‑7). The value of these tax cuts would increase from 0.1% of GDP in 2030‑31 to 1.0% of GDP by 2035‑36. The growth in tax receipts as a proportion of GDP before applying the tax cap would be almost entirely driven by increased personal income tax receipts.^[25]

Figure 4-7: Impact of tax cap on party platform tax receipts
Underlying cash balance