Australian Greens

Budget impacts over the medium term

The combined impact of the Greens' election commitments is estimated to decrease the underlying cash, fiscal and headline cash balances over the medium term (see Figure 5‑1).

Figure 5-1: Medium-term impact of the Greens' platform on the budget balance aggregates

After an initial positive impact on the underlying cash balance in 2025‑26, the fiscal and underlying cash balances decline progressively through to the end of the medium term. The positive underlying cash balance in 2025‑26 reflects the impact of some large revenue commitments commencing on 1 July 2025, whilst many expenditure commitments do not commence until the following year. The general decrease in the fiscal and underlying cash balances from 2028‑29 onwards reflects the growth in expenditure outpacing the growth in revenue (see Figure 5‑2).

These impacts are estimated to result in underlying cash deficits of $670.1 billion in total over the medium term (Table 5‑4). The difference between the fiscal and underlying cash balances in the first year primarily reflects the upfront cost of debt remissions in Wipe all student debt (ECR-2025-3111) which are included in the fiscal balance but not the underlying cash balance.

There is a greater decrease in the headline cash balance relative to the fiscal and underlying cash balances (see Figure 5‑1) across the medium term. This is driven by multiple commitments to fund expenditure through balance sheet financing mechanisms such as equity injections and concessional loans. While the headline cash balance remains negative for the entirety of the medium term, the level fluctuates between years, caused by different rates of growth between multiple commitments, commitments which are non‑ongoing commencing and ceasing, and offsetting impacts within commitments.

Figure 5-2: Medium-term impact of the Greens' platform on the underlying cash balance

The Greens' receipts commitments, if fully implemented, would result in significantly higher receipts over the forward estimates and the medium term (Figure 5‑3). The Greens' platform includes major tax changes, including a super-profits tax in the commitment 40% excess profits tax on corporations with over $100 million turnover (ECR-2025-3194), reversal of the Stage 3 tax cuts in the commitment A fair and progressive income tax system (ECR-2025-3602), and the introduction of a wealth tax on billionaires in the commitment Tax billionaires and future billionaires and make them pay their fair share (ECR-2025-3463).

Figure 5-3: Impact of the Greens' platform on receipts, by major receipt type
Underlying cash balance

The Greens' platform results in higher payments overall (Figure 5‑4), partly funded through higher receipts and a reprioritisation of funding from defence under the commitment Reduce defence waste (ECR-2025-3633). Increases in payments are mainly directed to social protection, education, health and general public services.

Figure 5-4: Impact of the Greens' platform on payments according to purpose
Underlying cash balance, average annual impact 2025-26 to 2035-36

The Greens' election commitments are estimated to increase debt and public debt interest payments over the medium term, relative to PEFO (Figure 5‑5). By the end of the medium term, net debt is expected to reach $1.7 trillion (35.9% of GDP), more than double the baseline 2025‑26 levels. Gross debt is also expected to more than double to $2.2 trillion (46.9% of GDP) in 2035‑36. Public debt interest payments are expected to be $136.4 billion higher over the medium‑term period as a result.

Figure 5-5: Medium-term impact of the Greens' platform on government debt

The wedge between gross and net debt is driven by commitments funded through balance sheet financing arrangements. In particular, commitments related to concessional loans such as Wipe all student debt (ECR-2025-3111) and Make university and TAFE free (ECR-2025-3298) have larger impacts on net debt than gross debt. For instance, waiving loans increases net debt, and decreases the fiscal balance (driving the wedge in fiscal and underlying cash balances in 2025‑26), but does not directly impact gross debt as there is no direct change to required borrowing.

Figure 5-6 summarises the Greens' largest election commitments over the medium term. The full list of medium-term impacts for each commitment is provided in Appendix C.

Figure 5-6: The Greens' largest election commitments over the medium term
Cumulative impact on the underlying cash, fiscal and headline cash balance