Australian Greens

Budget impacts over the forward estimates

The combined impact of the Greens' 345 election commitments is estimated to decrease the underlying cash, fiscal and headline cash balances over the 2025‑26 Budget forward estimates (Table 5‑1) relative to the PEFO baseline.

The decrease in the underlying cash balance reflects a net increase in payments (including public debt interest) driven by commitments such as Social services – guaranteed liveable income and raise the rate (ECR-2025-3193), Cover dental under Medicare (ECR-2025-3663) and Make university and TAFE free (ECR-2025-3298), partially offset by reductions in payments from Reduce defence waste (ECR-2025-3633), and End subsidies for the coal mining, oil, and gas hydrocarbon industries (ECR-2025-3001).

The net increase in payments is also partially offset by commitments that would increase receipts such as Tax billionaires and future billionaires and make them pay their fair share (ECR-2025-3463), 40% excess profits tax on corporations with over $100 million in turnover (ECR-2025-3194) and A fair and progressive income tax system (ECR-2025-3602).

The impacts on the fiscal balance are of a similar magnitude and nature to the underlying cash balance. Differences primarily represent timing impacts between the accrual of expenditures or revenues and their subsequent payments or collections.

Over the forward estimates period, the impact of the Greens' commitments on the headline cash balance would be $184.1 billion larger than the impact on the underlying cash balance. This is primarily driven by the Government-owned property developer (ECR-2025-3265), Powering past coal and gas – Commonwealth Electricity Corporation: a publicly owned power generation company (ECR-2025-3787) and Wipe all student debt (ECR-2025-3111) commitments.  

The result of these impacts is a total of $156.8 billion in underlying cash deficits over the forward estimates.

Table 5-1: Summary financial implications of the Greens' election commitments ($ billion)

 

2025-26

2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

Total to 2028-29

Underlying cash balance (UCB)

 

 

 

 

Net impact

8.1

-0.8

..

-12.5

-5.2

Final UCB

-34.0

-36.1

-37.1

-49.6

-156.8

Headline cash balance (HCB)

 

 

 

 

Net impact 

-37.6

-48.7

-44.5

-58.5

-189.3

Final HCB

-102.8

-106.8

-101.6

-114.5

-425.7

Fiscal balance

 

 

 

 

 

Net impact 

-11.3

2.4

1.8

-12.7

-19.8

Final fiscal balance

-55.5

-29.7

-37.6

-50.0

-172.8

Public debt interest (PDI)

 

 

 

 

Net impact 

-0.5

-2.3

-4.6

-6.9

-14.4

Final PDI

-28.4

-32.5

-41.3

-45.2

-147.3

Gross debt

 

 

 

 

 

Net impact 

37.6

89.3

133.8

192.3

 

Final gross debt

1,059.6

1,181.3

1,294.8

1,415.3

 

Net debt

 

 

 

 

 

Net impact 

59.2

106.3

150.0

209.5

 

Final net debt

679.9

782.6

863.9

977.7

 

Source: 2025 PEFO and PBO analysis.
Note: A positive impact indicates an increase in the budget balance or debt levels. A negative impact indicates a reduction in the budget balance or debt levels. 
Figures may not sum to totals due to rounding.
..       Not zero but rounded to zero.

 

Of the Greens' 345 election commitments, 276 affect only payments, 11 only affect receipts, 48 affect both payments and receipts and 9 commitments have no impact on the budget balance aggregates. There is one analysis of interactions between commitments.

The Greens did not publish a consolidated list of the financial implications of their platform prior to the election. Accordingly, it is not possible to assess whether there is a difference between the PBO's estimates of the financial impact of the Greens' platform, and those prepared by the party.

Further detail about the combined impact of the Greens' election commitments on expenses, revenue and other budget aggregates is available in Detailed financial tables - Australian Greens.