26 November 2014

Budget projections are dependent on assumptions about the performance of the economy.  Variations in key economic parameters affect national income and therefore the budget projections.  This report analyses the sensitivity of the 2014–15 Budget medium-term projections to variations in labour productivity growth, the labour force participation rate and the terms of trade.  It highlights the importance of labour productivity growth, in particular as a driver of economic growth and fiscal sustainability, and includes an assessment of the likely balance of risks.

Independent Economics report: Economic impact of selected macroeconomic shocks, 23 September 2014

Supplementary table: High labour productivity

Supplementary table: Low labour productivity

Supplementary table: High labour force participation rate

Supplementary table: Low labour force participation rate

Supplementary table: High terms of trade

Supplementary table: Low terms of trade