Independent member for Indi

Budget impacts of election commitments

The combined impact of the member for Indi's 15 commitments would decrease the underlying cash, fiscal and headline balances over both the 2025‑26 Budget forward estimates and medium term relative to PEFO (see Table 6‑1 and Figure 6‑1).

Of 15 election commitments, the majority (11 commitments) affect only payments. The largest of these are the grants funding measures Providing $500 million per year to the Local Roads and Community Infrastructure Program (ECR-2025-6034), Creating a $2 billion Regional Housing Infrastructure Fund (ECR-2025-6385), and Establish a $2 billion Building Rural Hospitals Fund (ECR-2025-6349).

There are 4 election commitments that affect both receipts and payments, with the largest including Creating a small business and primary producer energy incentive (ECR-2025-6120) and Home electrification (ECR-2025-6088).

Table 6-1: Summary financial implications of the independent member for Indi's election commitments ($ billion)

Source: 2025 PEFO and PBO analysis.    
Note: A positive impact indicates an increase in the budget balance or debt levels. A negative impact indicates a reduction in the budget balance or debt levels. Public debt interest is relative to the budget balances, so a negative impact indicates an increase in PDI cost. Figures may not sum to totals due to rounding.

The independent member for Indi’s commitments have larger impacts in the forward estimates period, before reducing in the medium term. The different movements in the 3 budget balances (Figure 6‑1) are primarily due to the difference in the treatment of interest and dividend payments, and the accounting treatment of equity and loan principal for the $13.1 billion of concessional loans under the commitment Home electrification (ECR-2025-6088).^[31],[32] 

Figure 6-1: Medium-term impact of the independent member for Indi's platform on the budget balance aggregates

The underlying cash balance decline over the forward estimates reflects a net increase in payments (including public debt interest) (Figure 6‑2). The payments significantly reduce from 2029-30, as large grants funding measures terminate by the end of the forward estimates.

The result of these impacts would be a total decrease in the underlying cash balance of $159.8 billion over the forward estimates and $341.7 billion over the medium term (see Table 6‑2).

Figure 6-2: Medium-term impact of the independent member for Indi's platform
Underlying cash balance

The decline in the budget balances, in particular, the headline cash balance, is smaller from the end of the forward estimates, reflecting the repayment of concessional loans under the commitment Home electrification (ECR-2025-6088) commencing in 2029-30. 

Figure 6-3 shows the impact of the member for Indi’s election commitments on receipts in each year and whether these are tax or non-tax receipts. Total receipts are slightly higher over the period relative to PEFO, primarily due to an increase in interest received (by $2.7 billion) from concessional loans under the commitment Home electrification (ECR-2025-6088). This is partly offset by lower tax receipts (by $0.5 billion) due to the commitment Creating a small business and primary producer energy incentive (ECR-2025-6120).

Figure 6-3: Impact of the independent member for Indi's platform on receipts, by major receipt type
Underlying cash balance

Figure 6-4 shows the impact on payments of the member for Indi’s commitments according to their primary purpose, using the standard Australian Bureau of Statistics classification for government spending.^[33] Most of the commitments are payments rather than receipts measures, with the largest areas of spending being health and general public services. The increase in spending on general public services is driven by the increase in public debt interest as a result of the aggregate impact of the commitments.

Figure 6-4: Impact of the independent member for Indi's platform on payments according to purpose
Underlying cash balance, average annual impact 2025-26 to 2035-36 

The independent member for Indi’s election commitments are estimated to increase debt and public debt interest payments over the medium term, relative to PEFO (Figure 6‑5). By the end of the medium term, gross debt would be $21.7 billion higher, reaching $1.5 trillion (32.4% of GDP) (Table 6‑4). Public debt interest payments are expected to be $7.7 billion higher over the medium term as a result. The wedge between gross and net debt is primarily driven by commitments with concessional loans, as selected financial liabilities are captured in net debt but not gross debt. 

Figure 6-5: Medium-term impact of the independent member for Indi's platform on government debt 

Figure 6-6 summarises the member for Indi’s 10 largest election commitments over the medium term. The full list of medium-term impacts for each commitment is provided in Appendix D.

Figure 6-6: The independent member for Indi's 10 largest election commitments over the medium term
Cumulative impact on the underlying cash, fiscal and headline cash balances